2024-12-05 - Wealth

Wall Street Bets Big on 2025 U.S. Economy

The financial market appears to be showing some signs of recovery. However, as today is Friday, there is uncertainty about whether this rebound is merely a one-day event. Many investors are expressing cautious optimism, hoping that this could lead to a more sustained upward trend in the coming weeks. Yet, given the unpredictable nature of market fluctuations, it is essential to remain vigilant and prepared for potential turns in either direction.

In recent times, the A-shares market has experienced significant turbulence, leaving many investors uncertain about which direction to follow. The increased risks have prompted a strategy shift toward safer investments, such as high-quality bond funds. Generally, bond funds do not yield substantial returns, but a hybrid bond fund that I recently invested in has achieved an outstanding yield of 5.65% over the past three months. This fund balances stability with higher returns, presenting a favorable cost-benefit ratio for investors looking to protect their capital. In an encouraging development, the fund has no lock-in period and offers a fee waiver for transactions completed within seven days. After witnessing satisfactory gains in my initial investment, I have decided to invest an additional 2,000 yuan today, though I do not intend to offer personalized investment suggestions.

Focusing on the China Securities A500 Index, this benchmark tracks the leading stocks in emerging industries, playing a significant role in fostering new productive forces. Given the frequent rotations within the A-shares sector, capitalizing on this benchmark's trends increases the likelihood of capturing market movements. Presently, the A500 Index is showing signs of stabilizing and recovering, rendering it a viable option for both short-term and long-term investment. The Yin Hua fund, which recently opened to new investments and also boasts a fee waiver for transactions within a week, aligns with my strategy. I have consistently trusted its fund manager, whose performance has excelled in tracking index deviations, thus, I have added another 2,000 yuan to this portfolio today, again without making investment recommendations.

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On the international front, the Nasdaq Composite Index has been consistently breaking records, buoyed by a favorable environment under the new U.S. administration, which indicates a relaxing of regulations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve on interest rates. Analysts on Wall Street anticipate that the U.S. stock market will continue to rise into 2025, as the traditional Christmas rally could bolster overall performance. Among the investment opportunities, the Hua Bao fund, which heavily concentrates on the leading U.S. stocks, is heavily weighted toward robust technology companies, ensuring stability and explosive potential. Impressed by its consistent results, I have also chosen to allocate an additional 2,000 yuan today while refraining from providing specific investment advice.

As we analyze the trends in various sectors, there are apparent similarities among sectors like liquor, healthcare, and renewable energy, which currently exhibit a symmetric triangle pattern. However, differentiation has emerged today as liquor and renewable energy stocks maintain support levels without showing signs of recovery, remaining trapped within the triangular formation. Conversely, the innovative pharmaceutical sector has broken through the upper boundary of the triangle, indicating potential for further recovery. I have been actively positioning myself in this space recently, resulting in positive returns.

In the realm of photovoltaic stocks, previous pressure from past highs led to a pullback, but indications of a rebound were evident. Over the past two days, however, this upward momentum could not be maintained, leaving the sector hovering near support levels without a clear directional signal. Should prices breach this critical level, further downward movement is likely.

Recent fluctuations in the securities sector also reveal interesting dynamics. After climbing to recent highs, the market experienced a retraction. It has since returned to key support levels, recovering slightly but with no significant bounce, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty.

The real estate sector, after experiencing rapid growth, quickly faced a decline. Despite two recovery attempts during its downward trajectory, it has struggled to sustain upward movement. Today’s bounce has not yet breached the recent highs, so the potential for a sustained recovery remains unproven.

The semiconductor, military, and telecommunications sectors have similarly undergone recent oscillations, showing promising upward movement only to succumb to resistance before retreating below crucial trend lines. Currently, these sectors show signs of stabilization but have not yet reclaimed the upward trajectory or previous high-pressure levels, leaving them in a state of flux.

In the diversification discussion, robotics and gaming stocks have rallied recently, approaching key previous high resistance levels. Successful penetration of this barrier could signal a return to peak levels, suggesting significant room for appreciation. The market remains near this pressure point, waiting with bated breath to see if it can break through.

Examining the recent surge in dividends and banking sectors reveals parallel movements. Following considerable advances, both experienced pullbacks, yet the dividends sector appears poised for upward movement after recently surpassing its pressure threshold. However, banking stocks have yet to reach a similar breakout point, continuing to consolidate within a defined range.

As we share insights on potential investment strategies, it is noteworthy that Wall Street is betting on a robust U.S. economy in 2025. Over the past several years, the American economy has consistently outperformed expectations, providing surprising results that have perplexed investors and analysts alike. For instance, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlights a deviation from pre-pandemic predictions when growth estimates tended to be inflated.

With 2025 around the corner, strategists like Calvasina lean toward optimistic post-pandemic trends, wagering that the U.S. economy will once again exceed expectations, creating a paradigm shift in commonly held forecasts. As she notes, "Considering the recent historical underestimation of U.S. economic growth and the sluggish increases in next year's GDP predictions, I am betting on growth figures between 2% and 3%, rather than the more conservative estimates of 1% to 2%." She anticipates that the S&P 500 index could reach 6,600 points by the year's end.

Further underscoring this optimism, an equity strategist at Wells Fargo, Christopher Harvey, has set an optimistic target of 7,007 points for the S&P 500, emphasizing the cyclical opportunities posed by elevated GDP adjustments. Harvey contends that while AI appears to be a driving force in 2024, GDP growth could define the market trajectory in 2025.

The American Bank's stock and quantitative strategy team’s 2025 outlook echoes this sentiment, predicting an S&P 500 target of 6,666 points. Their economic analysts foresee a 2.4% annualized growth rate for the U.S. economy, considerably higher than the widespread Bloomberg consensus of 2.1%. This preference for "GDP-sensitive companies" leads American Bank to suggest increasing positions in financials, discretionary consumer goods, materials, real estate, and utilities.

Savita Subramanian of American Bank argues that equities present more opportunities than indices, particularly for firms exhibiting strong cash return prospects tied to the U.S. economy: the large-cap value stocks. Calvasina concurs, noting the necessity for GDP to gain momentum for value stocks to outperform the broader market. While suggesting an increased market leadership transition or value stock favorability, she acknowledges that achieving this remains a challenging endeavor.

Among Wall Street's optimistic strategists, Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha stands out by forecasting the S&P 500 will achieve 7,000 points by the end of 2025, attributing this potential to what he calls a "historically strong economic backdrop." He points out that while there has been a general consensus of recession, the reality has showcased a remarkably robust economic landscape, with current low unemployment and robust GDP growth only occurring together in about 6% of historical instances.

In Chadha's analysis, he emphasizes that previous strong stock performances corresponded with historical patterns observed in the late 1960s and the latter half of the 1990s. Careful examination of Calvasina’s findings reveals the critical connection between GDP growth meeting or exceeding positive expectations and stock market rebounds. Notably, historical performance data since 1947 reveals that during years when GDP growth ranged between 1.1% and 2%, the stock market garnered only a 40% return, with an average decline of 3.4%. In contrast, years marked by GDP growth of 2.1% to 3% witnessed a remarkable 70% probability of stock market gains, with average returns nearing 11%. Hence, while some strategists may hastily assert that the stock market is detached from the economy, historical patterns suggest that when the economy trends downward, as is anticipated for 2025, it often signals challenges for stock performance.

This perspective might shed light on why a failure to achieve growth expectations above 2.1% could spell concerns for bullish sentiments in the upcoming year, as potential signs of slowdown loom.